In each of the last four years, the Kentucky Derby winner has been the post time favorite and the most credentialed runner in the field. Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah and Nyquist all captured the Derby at favored odds of lower than 4/1 - a distinct departure from recent history where the favorite only triumphed once from 2000-2012. Simple analysis of this evidence suggests the Kentucky Derby point system has been doing its job. Gone are the days when owners struck by Derby Fever were permitted to enter sprinters by virtue of their graded earnings in non-route races.  4e2850

Sacrificial speed no longer in play 123y3i

In years past horses like Spanish Chestnut, Songandaprayer, Keyed Entry and a myriad of others were entered in the mile and a quarter race with almost no shot of being able to handle the distance or do much else than set a torrid early pace. Of course, the result was that many a favorite in possession of natural speed were coaxed into running much quicker early splits, softening them late for the improbable late kick of a lesser-credentialed closer. Not coincidentally, California Chrome, American Pharoah and Nyquist all won the Derby by laying close to the early pace. 

A positive trend 4a345q

As a group, horse players tend to have more gripes and complaints than the general public, so those lamenting having their Derby horse sacrificed by the whims of an ill-spotted sprinter no longer have a valid claim. The recent trend of Kentucky Derby favorites is attributable to the effectivness of the Kentucky Derby Run for the Roses point system. 

Kaigun tops the field as the morning line favorite at odds of 5-2 for trainer Mark Casse. A six-year-old son of Northern Afleet, the chestnut gelding is a six time career winner and a multiple graded stakes winner. He has been on the board in all three starts this year and was last seen winning the Pan American Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Joe Bravo will be in the irons and they are scheduled to break from post position seven.

Up With the Birds returning off short layoff 84a5i

Second choice at morning line odds of 3-1 is Up With the Birds for trainer Graham Motion. A six-year-old son of Stormy Atlantic, he was Canada’s champion three-year-old in 2013 and is a seven-time career winner. A homebred for Sam-Son Farm, he will be making his first start of the year and returning off of a four-month layoff. John Velazquez will be aboard and they will break from post position two.

Twilight Eclipse trying to regain winning form 5t3f

Also in the field at morning line odds of 3-1 is Twilight Eclipse for trainer Tom Albertrani. Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, the seven-year-old gelding has won seven times and is a multiple graded stakes winner. He returned to action off of a five-month freshening after finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and was seventh in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2). Julian Leparoux will be aboard from post six.

Those bettors would be well-served by erasing Mohaymen’s disappointing fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby from their short-term memories. While 7 of the last 11 Derby winners were victorious in their final prep races, Giacomo (2005), Street Sense (2007), Mine that Bird (2009), and Super Saver (2010) all avenged last-out losses on the first Saturday in May. Notably, Giacomo and Mine that Bird each finished a well-beaten fourth in their previous race, with both horses going on to improbable longshot wins at nearly identical odds of 50/1.

Presedence set for Mohaymen 5r5z4s

Certainly, the once-beaten Mohaymen has less to overcome than either Giacomo or Mine that Bird and won’t be a fraction of the price, but the gray son of Tapit may offer better than expected betting value as the public is sure to unfairly evaluate his poor run in the Florida Derby. Every horse deserves a mulligan, and in Mohaymen’s lone loss, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee ran too bad to be true over a drying racing surface he clearly didn’t care for.

A must use 196k4n

With Beyer Speed Figures as good as any horse in the 2016 Kentucky Derby field and few upbeat workouts over the Churchill Downs racing strip, Mohaymen is a horse that should be included on the tickets of players looking to capitalize on value.

Untapable headlines the field as the morning line favorite at odds of 6-5 for trainer Steve Asmussen. A homebred daughter of Tapit for Winchell Thoroughbreds, the bay mare was an Eclipse Award winner as a three-year-old and has won nine of her eighteen starts. She has gone winless since her victory in the Apple Blossom Stakes (G1) last year but has been on the board in her last five starts. Florent Geroux will be in the irons and they will break from post position four.

Tara's Tango looking for third straight win 2i5j39

Second choice at morning line odds of 9-5 is Tara’s Tango for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. A four-year-old daughter of Unbridled’s Song bred and owned by Stonestreet Stables, she has been on the board in eight of her ten starts and is a multiple graded stakes winner. She is coming into this race off of two consecutive victories against graded stakes company at Santa Anita and will break from post position three under jockey Rafael Bejarano.

Forever Unbridled getting better with each start 6j1oy

Also in the field at morning line odds of 6-1 is Forever Unbridled for trainer Dallas Stewart. A four-year-old daughter of Unbridled’s Song, the Charles Fipke-homebred has won three of her nine starts and has rounded into sharp form. She has won her last two starts against graded stakes competition and was last seen winning the Houston Ladies Classic (G3). John Velazquez will be aboard and they will break from post position five.

So tough is the field, that last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Stopchargingmaria is listed as the lukewarm 7/2 favorite on the morning line. Unquestionably, the Todd Pletcher trainee has found a very difficult spot for her return, making her first start since winning the aforementioned BC Distaff October 30. The five year-old mare surely prefers more distance, but has finished second in two career starts at the seven furlong trip, including by a half length in last year's Madison.Pletcher connects at a 23% clip with runners coming back from layoffs of 61-180 days and the champ has proven her affinity for the Keeneland surface. Breaking from post 12 under regular rider Javier Castellano, Stopchargingmaria should get an ideal stalking trip if able to shake the racing rust.

9/2 second choice Wavell Avenue is another Keeneland Breeders' Cup winner returning for her 2016 debut. The five year-old Chad Brown trainee was a surprise winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint October 31 at the same seven furlong trip. Brown also excels with runners coming back from 61-180 days, connecting at an astounding 28%. The hotter the early pace, the better for this mare's late-running style. Julien Leparoux will be in the irons replacing winning Breeders' Cup rider Joel Rosario.

Square price on top-class mare 616c4h

Sheer Drama (12/1) is another comebacker after finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff behind Stopchargingmaria. The David Fawkes trainee may actually be better suited for seven s despite running at more classic distances last year. This mare represents quality at a fair price.  

Carrumba tops the field as the morning line favorite at odds of 9-5 for trainer Claude McGaughey, III. A four-year-old daughter of Bernardini, she is a Phipps Stable homebred and has been on the board in all six starts. She is trying to earn her fourth career victory and has been on the bench since finishing second in her graded stakes debut in the Comely Stakes (G3) in November. Jose Ortiz will be in the irons and they will break from post position three.

Mei Ling already in solid form for the year 6jz2e

Second choice at morning line odds of 2-1 is Mei Ling for trainer Todd Pletcher. A five-year-old daughter of Empire Maker, she has been on the board in fourteen of her eighteen starts and is a four-time winner. She is trying to earn her first graded stakes victory and is coming out of a victory in the Heavenly Prize Invitational Stakes last time out. John Velazquez will be aboard and they will break from post position two.

America making first start of the year 3t2k5z

Also in the field at morning line odds of 3-1 is America for trainer Bill Mott. A five-year-old daughter of A.P. Indy, she is a homebred for celebrity chef Bobby Flay and is a five time career winner. She earned her first graded stakes win last year and has been freshened since finishing fifth in the Go For Wand Handicap (G3). Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be aboard and they are scheduled to break from the outside post. 

Eagle has been installed as the morning line favorite in the competitive field at odds of 2-1 for trainer Neil Howard. Bred and owned by W.S. Farish, the four-year-old son of Candy Ride (ARG) has been on the board in nine of his eleven starts and is a five-time winner. He will be trying to earn his first graded stakes victory and was last seen finishing second in the Mineshaft Handicap (G3). Javier Castellano will be aboard and they will break from the outside post.

International Star a horse for the course 731b3i

Second choice at morning line odds of 3-1 is International Star, one of two horses in the race for trainer Mike Maker. Bred and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, the four-year-old son of Fusaichi Pegasus has won six of his twelve starts and has had four of those victories at Fair Grounds. He will be trying to move forward after finishing fourth in the Mineshaft Handicap (G3) last time out. John Velazquez will be in the irons and they will break from the rail.

Ride on Curlin trying to regain competitive form 16b52

Also in the field at morning line odds of 20-1 is longshot Ride on Curlin for trainer William Gowan. A five-year-old son of Curlin, he has been on the board in thirteen of his twenty starts and is trying to earn his fourth victory and first graded stakes win. He will have to rebound after finishing tenth in the Maxxam Gold Cup Stakes at Sam Houston last time out. James Graham will be aboard and they will break from post position six. 

At the beginning of the year, Stage Play (5/2) looked poised to become one of the top three year-old fillies in the country - perhaps even a suitable contender to knock off Songbird in the Kentucky Oaks, but things took a detour when the Steve Asmussen-trained filly finished a dull fifth February 20 in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes. The gray or roan daughter of Curlin has looked far less impressive racing around two turns than expected, but is still certainly eligible to move forward with just five career races under her belt. The three-time winner retains jockey Florent Geroux and will break from post 4 in a race that will likely determine whether she competes in the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. 

Escaping the shadow  r6c1d

Speaking of Songbird, Land Over Sea (3/1) ships all the way to New Orleans from her base in southern California for trainer Doug O'Neil just to escape the freakishly fast filly. Land Over Sea has lost to Songbird in five straight races, including a pair of runner-up finishes in here last two starts and another second in the Grade 1 Chandelier in September. Land Over Sea appears to be a very formidable runner, but must prove she is able to win races and will likely be overbet based on the company she's been keeping. 

Speed horses can surprise  2l3l5h

Midnight On Oconee (9/2) and Adore (5/1) are talented runners with the former being the more experienced and the latter stepping up in class following consecutive wins at Oaklawn Park. Both project near the early pace and either could hang around long enough to pull the upset if things just right. 

Family Meeting has been installed as the morning line favorite in the contentious field at odds of 3-1 for trainer Tom Proctor. A dark bay daughter of Sky Mesa, she is a homebred for Glen Hill Farm and has won two of her four starts including one against graded stakes competition. She was second last time out in the Blue Hill Stakes at Santa Anita to end her juvenile season and will be making her first start of the year. Brian Pedroza will be aboard from post position six.

Ava's Kitten returning off of a layoff 3z2r48

Second choice at morning line odds of 7-2 is Ava’s Kitten for trainer Chad Brown. A homebred daughter of Kitten’s Joy for Ken and Sarah Ramsey, she has been on the board in three of her four starts and will be trying to earn her third career victory. She has been on the shelf since winning the Chelsey Flower Stakes in October and will break from post position four under jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Spinamiss (IRE) looking for first stakes victory 271f1l

Also in the field at morning line odds of 6-1 is Spinamiss (IRE) for trainer Todd Pletcher. A bay daughter of Lilbourne Lad (IRE), she has been on the board in four of her five starts and has two victories.  She began her career in her native Ireland and made her stateside debut with an allowance victory in December. She was second in the Sweetest Chant Stakes (G3) last time out and will have Javier Castellano aboard from post seven. 

Twilight Eclipse has plenty of name recognition as the 2/1 morning line favorite, but has not raced since finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf October 31 at Keeneland. The seven year-old Tom Albertrani trainee has been a fixture in graded stakes distance turf races on the east coast for the last two years, but must shake some racing rust as well as his penchant for settling for second and third-place finishes. In 29 career starts, Twilight Eclipse has garnered 12 such minor awards while finding the winner’s circle seven times. Notably, the classy runner has just a single victory in his last twelve starts while finding himself on the short end of numerous close finishes at the graded stakes level. Albertrani hits with just 8% of his runners returning from layoffs of 61-180 days, but Twilight Eclipse has shown the ability to fire first off the bench.

Hoss goes for stakes repeat p2na

Da Big Hoss (3/1) boasts excellent recent form, taking the Grade 3 Conly Stakes last out at Sam Houston by over four lengths. Winning pilot Florent Geroux returns to the irons for trainer Mike Maker while this runner makes the third start of his current form cycle – an excellent winning angle.

Mr. Maybe looks dangerous off layoff 5713

Mr. Maybe (4/1) stretched out nicely to win a pair of long distance turf races to close his 2015 year, including a 4-length win in the Grade 3 Red Smith. Like Twilight Eclipse, Mr. Maybe will have to overcome the layoff, but trainer Chad Brown strikes with 28% of his runners returning from 61-180 days.